Sensitivity analysis

Currency

Approximately 57% (54) of sales and 54% (53) of operating costs were denominated in euros, and approximately 29% (32) of sales and 19% (23) of operating costs were denominated in US dollars. The remainder were split between several currencies. The Group’s profits and competitiveness are also indirectly affected by the home currencies of its main competitors.

Oil and gas price

In 2025, oil markets were marked by significant volatility and price swings, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply risks. Brent crude prices declined about 20% year-on-year, fluctuating between $58 and $83 per barrel, with a rebound near year-end due to heightened fears over supply disruptions. Downward price trends were fuelled by weak global economic conditions—especially in China and the eurozone— unstable OPEC+ production policies, and increased output from non-OPEC producers, resulting in a surplus and generally suppressed prices.

The 2025 natural gas market is characterised by significant price volatility resulting from fluctuating supply-demand dynamics, weather patterns, and geopolitical events. Despite strong U.S. production, high storage levels, and robust LNG exports stabilizing supply, the market remains highly reactive to weather extremes and policy changes, with prices experiencing sharp swings. While availability disruptions have been limited, ongoing risks from geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain issues continue to pose challenges.

The direct effect of oil and gas price changes on Wärtsilä’s operations is limited and mostly related to fuel costs for engine testing, R&D activities, and the heating of some premises.

In general, higher oil and gas prices represent a risk for global economic growth and increased operating costs, especially in the shipping markets. On the other hand, higher oil and gas prices increase interest in our energy efficiency offering, and increase the demand for alternative green fuels as they become more costcompetitive against conventional fuels. Wärtsilä is a global company involved in various shipping and power plant segments where oil and gas price changes can have an opposing impact on demand drivers.

In the marine markets, high gas prices, or their volatility, are not expected to reduce the appetite for LNG as a fuel in the long run. Higher demand and supply volumes, and investments in expanding LNG liquefaction capacity, are driving demand for additional LNG carrier capacity. However, shipyards capable of building LNG carriers have few to no slots available during the coming years. Persistent high gas prices may encourage ship operators to switch temporarily from LNG to low-sulphur fuel, which most modern vessels can use in dual-fuel engines. In the energy markets, gas price volatility and increasing prices can have a negative impact on the competitiveness of our portfolio, especially in thermal baseload plants, and may lead to more running hours of coal-fired and nuclear power plants. Higher fuel prices may have an impact on project viability and customer decision making. However, these are expected to have less of an impact on thermal balancing power plants operating with fewer running hours.

Raw materials

Metal prices have an indirect effect on component costs for Wärtsilä’s products. Some key components are sourced with long-term contracts, which limits raw material price volatility during the validity of contracts. However, concentrated supply chains of some raw materials, and the tight competitive situation to secure supplies, impose direct risks to the Energy business.

The battery industry continues to suffer from raw material price volatility, characterised by a complex interplay of demand, supply, technological, and geopolitical factors. The year 2025 marked a pronounced shift in the dynamics of battery energy storage system (BESS) material pricing, especially for lithium and its associated components, such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite. Early in the year, lithium prices remained under pressure from surplus inventory and weaker-than-anticipated electric vehicle (EV) demand. Lithium carbonate prices in North Asia fell to their lowest since 2021—leading to production cuts and delayed projects, most notably in Australia and China. This persistent oversupply capped price recovery throughout H1 2025. In H2, supply disruptions, such as curtailments at major Chinese mines, drove lithium carbonate considerably up by December—a 34% rise from October— indicating growing volatility. Western dependency on Chinese battery materials is recognised as a profound strategic and commercial risk, especially for AI, defense, and energy independence, which is likely to trigger further tariff actions and legislative moves.

Interest rates 

Wärtsilä manages its interest rate risk by diversifying its exposure between fixed and floating rate loans, and by employing interest rate derivatives. The proportion of fixed‑rate debt, including derivatives, may range between 30% and 70% of the total debt portfolio. To hedge its loan portfolio, Wärtsilä may use a range of derivative instruments, such as interest rate swaps, futures, and options. At the end of 2025, there was EUR 141 million (127) interest rate swaps.

At the end of 2025, a parallel shift of one percentage point in the Euribor curve, either an increase or a decrease, would result in an annual change of EUR 2 million (3) in the interest expenses of the floating‑rate loan portfolio. This analysis is based on the floating‑rate portion of the debt portfolio as of 31 December 2025.

More information can be found on our Risk management pages.