According to the UN, around 10.4 billion people will populate the planet in 2100. While the number will likely peak after centuries of constant growth, accommodating the additional three billion humans poses a massive challenge for the international community.
While population growth has essentially stopped in developed countries, low-income and lower-middle-income countries continue to record high birth rates, increasing the need for food, housing, and transportation. Additionally, many nations aspire to more westernised living standards and consumerism, making green growth even more difficult.
With their extravagant lifestyles, developed countries are still the biggest polluters. Therefore, taking a growing population of less-developed countries to the same standard of living would be unmanageable given the lack of resources and the potential environmental impact.
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the UN’s Economic and Social Affairs Department, explains that population control is not a feasible tool to regulate the impact of demographic changes: “There are few acceptable approaches that would lead to a fundamental change in the trajectory of the human population. The change must come in terms of the per capita impacts of our behaviour.”
India’s and Turkey’s car industries, for example, are currently attempting to leapfrog directly into electric vehicles, which offer more sustainable transportation and have the potential for economic success.
But more sustainable growth must be more than just a top-down effort. Wilmoth says, “It is a huge task before humanity to decarbonise our economy to avoid the worst risks of climate change. People will also have to change their habits and adapt to the effects of global warming. No part of society can do it on its own—not government, private sector, or civil society.”
Corporations would be wise to lead the way on those discussions and find ways to marry their interests with the interests of a sustainable world.
Jennifer Sciubba, one of the leading experts on demographic security and a fellow at the Wilson Center, calls for a holistic approach to combat the effects of population growth: “The places in the world where the population is growing the least, or in many cases shrinking, are the ones with a far bigger carbon footprint.“ Hence, people in the most developed countries would need to separate thinking about sustainability and population growth.
On the other hand, lower-income countries would need social programmes that can slow population growth and sustainable development that can yield dividends for the people.
“Corporations have to be a part of that; they’re the ones who have to lead the way,” she says. “If governments ever catch hold—and I’m not sure they will—of the idea that we must take sustainability seriously, they will try to lead the way. And they might lead the ways that are opposite to corporate interest.”
While the measure of success is still unending growth, the ageing and shrinking population could make us rethink current standards. Sciubba, who authored the book 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, adds, “Corporations would be wise to lead the way on those discussions and find ways to marry their interests with the interests of a sustainable world.”
Because of that, corporations would have to bridge the gap between environmental and social sustainability. As Sciubba points out: “If you think about the social implications of a technology or a product, you position yourself much better in the long run.”
