The cost declines in renewable energy and energy storage are unprecedented and have started disrupting the energy system as we know it. What is revolutionary is that the decision to increase the share of renewable energy is not an ideological, “green” decision. It is simply smart from an economic point of view. We can say that finally affordability coincides with sustainability.
It’s a long way to 100% renewable energy, but with existing technologies it is possible to accommodate a large share. The speed of the energy transition is uncertain, but countries and utilities that are unprepared for it risk being engulfed by the inevitable wave. The key is to avoid investing in assets that will be rendered uneconomic by the changes in the market. Those that have prepared with competence and foresight will have the least expensive, cleanest and most resilient energy system ever in their history.
There are fundamental changes in the role of thermal generation on the path towards 100% renewable energy systems. This will cause the role of gas to change already when the penetration of renewables reaches approximately 20%, but even more so in the final push from 80% to 100% renewables. This white paper describes how gas-based power generation and the natural gas and LNG industries will have to adapt to changing realities.